Written by Christina Comben, Staff EditorReviewed by Yohan Yun, Staff EditorIran war bets turn prediction markets into real-time macro radar: Sygnum11 hours agoAs Iran war odds swing on Polymarket and Kalshi, Sygnum’s Fabian Dori says prediction markets are fast becoming macro tools for crypto desks. Listen0: 00 Cointelegraph in your social feed Prediction markets rapidly repriced the odds of US escalation in the Iran conflict, offering a real-time signal of geopolitical risk for traders. Odds on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi shifted in real time as President Donald Trump paired new threats with signals of possible negotiations on Sunday, while Bitcoin (BTC) rose more than 3.5% on Monday. Crypto prediction markets are no longer a sideshow during periods of geopolitical tension, with professional desks increasingly using them to gauge macro risk, according to Sygnum Bank chief investment officer Fabian Dori. “Prediction markets price discrete, named outcomes with real capital behind them, ” Dori told Cointelegraph. “For crypto in particular, where so much price action is driven by specific binary events, regulatory decisions, geopolitical developments [and] protocol upgrades, that is a categorically different signal. ”Related: Brandt says Bitcoin yet to bottom, Polymarket sees hope: Trade SecretsThroughout the Iran conflict escalation, prediction market odds on de-escalation shifted before mainstream financial media coverage caught up and “had direct correlation” with Bitcoin price, Dori added.
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